A newsletter about the Valley
What a house in Phoenix is actually worth.
Every Monday I send one email: a property I looked at with the numbers run honestly, what the market did, and where I'd look next. No listings. No lead gen. No "hot buyer's market" filler.
Get Monday's issue.
Founding members pay nothing — and keep their price when the paid deal desk opens.
Built for people who actually want to buy something in the Valley — first rentals, second units, a house to live in. Not for people chasing a get-rich-quick.
Already shopping? Members also get a running list of Valley homes worth a look, with my verdict on each.
What lands in your inbox
01
One deal, fully run
A real property I looked at this week. Purchase price, rehab, rent, and the cash-on-cash you'd end up with — including the assumptions that make it look worse.
02
What the market did
Prices, inventory, and days on market for the metro, in plain sentences. No chart you need a finance degree to read.
03
Where I'd look next
The neighborhoods and street types I think are mispriced right now, and the ones I'd walk past at any price.
The market, right now
August 2026 data · refreshed 29 September 2026Median asking price, Phoenix metro
$475K
-4.8% vs a year ago
Active listings
17,707
+5.2% vs a year ago
Median days on market
67
-3 days vs a year ago
30-year fixed mortgage rate
7.03%
+0.08 vs the week before
Prices are down and nobody is pretending otherwise: the median asking price in the metro was $475K in August, 4.8% lower than a year ago, and more than a quarter of listings had already been cut before a single buyer walked through the door. Inventory is up 5.2% year over year, but not because sellers got confident — most of those extra listings are homes that simply didn't sell. The real ceiling here is the cost of money. The 30-year is back above 7% after the Fed raised rates in September, so the monthly payment, not the number on the sign, is what kills most deals in this Valley. What I'm watching this fall is whether sellers keep cutting price or quietly pull their homes off the market when the math stops working.
Read the full market pageLatest issue · #3
Full archive →The Tempe doublewide nobody wanted
A 1978 doublewide on a 7,000 sq ft lot two blocks from the light rail is the most interesting thing I saw all week.
Read issue #3The question you're asking
It's free today. Here's what changes and what doesn't.
Who's actually writing this?+
Dominic Campos, out of Tempe and Scottsdale. I spend most of my week on the golf course and in the gym, and the rest of it poking around the Valley's property market. This is what I write down for friends — cleaned up and sent on time.
Is this financial advice?+
No. It's one person's read on his own local market. Run your own numbers and talk to a professional before you put money anywhere.
Do you sell houses or take commissions?+
No brokerage, no referral fees, no kickbacks from lenders or inspectors. If I ever start taking money from someone, I'll say so in the email that week.
Why will it cost money later?+
The free issue is the market read and one deal. The paid tier is the deal desk — a running list of properties I've underwritten, off-market leads, and the numbers behind each one. Founding members keep their price when that opens.
Monday morning, one email.
Join free today and you're a founding member for good.